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Wednesday, June 20, 2018

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The Downward Spiral in Emerging Market Currencies  (continued)

The Downward Spiral in Emerging Market Currencies These include Argentina, Turkey, South Africa, Ukraine, Chile, Indonesia, Venezuela, India, Brazil, Taiwan and Malaysia.

The reasoning behind it is all the same. If you're a so-called "commodity currency" -- meaning that your principal exports are commodities -- since commodity prices are falling, the value of your currency begins to fall as well. Then you look around for a scapegoat and the scapegoat becomes the US Fed.

Meanwhile the Dow has fallen 500 points in the last two days. This is a warning of a fall coming in equities. We are short the S&Ps from 1825 and still haven't covered them because of Fed tapering -- even as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets this week which will also be the last meeting that Bernanke attends. Bernanke has made it very clear and the majority of Fed governors want to begin the process of weaning the planet's economy off the sugar high that QE provides which the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of Japan have created. This has also created an economic and political rift between Europe, the United States and Japan which still want QE 3 out full speed ahead.

So what are the implications of the fall of the commodity currencies visavis the US Dollar? We saw through the 1990s that there were record inflows in the US markets, namely US assets, US dollars, etc. In 2000 we saw that reverse and we saw the decade of the emerging markets which is now coming to an end. The money is now flowing out of emerging markets into so-called core countries.

The reason that's happening is because the cycle of higher commodity prices which cheap and easy money provided -- it wasn't demand driven which drove prices higher, it was cheap and easy money which drove prices higher -- and the investment money that flowed into these commodities was "dumb money" which knew nothing about commodities except they knew it was going up every day in price.

This is the end of the cycle of the first decade of the new century. Now we will see a new cycle -- despite what the ECB or the bank of Japan says about continuing with QE (quantitative easing) which they can't do alone without the Fed because if they do so they will create an artificial spread in their currencies where the Euro and the Yen are remaining consistently overvalued which is hurting the European and the Japanese economy.

Eventually the ECB and the Bank of Japan will have to get on board with the withdrawal of quantitative easing. The reason why the ECB and the Bank of Japan do not want a withdrawal of monetary stimulus is because they're frightened of global collapse.

They know that the planet's economy has become so dependent on the monetary sugar high that they're frightened of what the consequences are going to be when you take the sugar bowl away.

For the rest of this column by Independent Political, Economic & Market Analyst Al Martin, click here -- Al Martin Raw

* AL MARTIN, author of "The Conspirators: Secrets of an Iran Contra Insider," is an Independent Political-Economic Analyst with 25 years of experience as a trader on NYMEX, CME, CBOT and CFTC. He is also currently trading the commodity futures market day and night and has a teleconferencing service to facilitate transactions in the markets. This is a service for independent experienced traders.

For more details on commodity futures trading recommendations and more FREE sample columns, take a look at Al Martin's website "Insider Intelligence" Insider Intelligence for weekly exclusive commodity futures trading recommendations.

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