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Thursday, May 23, 2013
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The Economics of Hurricane Sandy  (continued)
    by AL MARTIN (AL MARTIN RAW)

The Economics of Hurricane Sandy

For instance, despite the stronger than expected personal income and spending data release, initially the S&Ps in the electronic session trade up as they should have for such data. Yet at the same time, you also saw US Treasury Bonds also trade up -- which they shouldn't have -- because stronger economic data of course is bearish for Bonds.

Nevertheless the Treasury Bonds on Monday -- after the cash Treasuries closed -- since the US froze the cash market early – had a substantial rally. And the Dollar also rallied.

This then is a harbinger and a sign of the fragility of the global economic system. Any disruption for any reason causes US Treasury Bonds and US Dollars to rally.

At the same time, although we saw both Silver and Gold have a good decline, the Gold hung in. The Gold was only down a couple of bucks, whilst all the rest of the metals complex was down proportionately much more. And how did European markets react? They opened unchanged but progressively got redder as time marched on.

How markets globally have traded in response to Hurricane
Sandy once again bespeaks of the fragility of the system.

So what else can we expect? The longer the markets stay shut -- no matter what happens (even if New York was simply destroyed) they're not going to keep the markets closed for more than two days because everyone understands what the implications are in keeping the markets shut -- since that would put us past the end of October.

This would create tremendous ripples in the markets since it would disrupt the process of the end of October portfolio window-dressing sale.

Assuming the markets reopen on Wednesday, you're going to see a double whammy -- all in one day.

Namely this is end of month portfolio window dressing selling -- not buying -- from the mutual funds and hedge funds along with end of fiscal year tax-loss selling which usually occurs in the last week of October anyway.

For the rest of this Exclusive Column by Political-Economic Analyst Al Martin, click on to Al Martin Raw.

* AL MARTIN, author of "The Conspirators: Secrets of an Iran Contra Insider," is an Independent Political-Economic Analyst with 25 years of experience as a trader on NYMEX, CME, CBOT and CFTC. He is also currently trading the commodity futures market day and night and has a teleconferencing service to facilitate transactions in the markets. This is a service for independent market-experienced traders.

For more details on commodity futures trading recommendations and more FREE sample columns, take a look at Al Martin's website "Insider Intelligence" Insider Intelligence for weekly exclusive commodity trading recommendations.


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